The Market Update explores how this week’s news, weather and other factors are shaping the global coffee trade.
Week on week, given the wider political climate and events, coffee did very little.
We traded sideways, closing 286 up from 282 week on week.
Wider events aside, offers from the major producers have either dried up or jumped 20-30c higher.
Brazil FC for current crop are currently trading higher than Colombia EPs, as farmers hold onto stocks.
Honduras smaller crop combined with rains have rallied diffs 20c in a week.
Offers from Costa Rica have likewise dried up. This appears more related to the shrinkage in the Tarrazu harvest paired with high demand.
Guatemala remains active and has coffee to sell May/June onwards. However, (you guessed it) offers are likewise up 20c on the week.
Indonesian offers remain extremely limited and sharply priced, as strong local demand continues to push values higher, compounding market pressures following last year’s flooding.
We anticipate delays from Ethiopia in both cargo departing as well as sailing times if lines continue to use all available lanes. We have been forewarned of surcharges up to $2000 per container if shipped.
While the NY C has dropped significantly over the last few weeks, and we have seen tariffs vanish (at least briefly), the rally in diffs is keeping coffee interesting.
Spot stocks remain thin, making forward planning and long-term coverage forecasting increasingly essential. —N.B.
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