The Market Update explores how this week’s news, weather and other factors are shaping the global coffee trade.
Another aggressive move in NY, as we see U26 trade higher week on week, 267>294. The delay — and potentially lack of — mitaca crop in Colombia is the main driver, raising differentials 20-40c in the last few weeks. Some potential cold weather in Brazil made everyone hold their breath. Ironically, though, it brought heavy rains, potentially threatening quality instead of the feared loss-of-harvest.
Colombia offers remain thin and highly priced; realistically, September shipments are the next available positions. This has pushed demand for Peru through the roof. Any remaining Nicaragua coffee is being snatched — the lack of washed Milds is becoming an increasingly bigger issue. With Costa Rica, Guatemala and Honduras are fully sold out. With no shipments until, optimistically, December 2026, we are staring at a long road ahead with limited supply.
Brazil ideas have shifted higher as roasters look at blend components. Anticipate Fine Cup to trade at Honduras levels.
To play the record on repeat; stocks are limited. The inversion U/Z has deepened to 1500. Carrying “long” stocks in any volume is not viable. —N.B.
Don’t want to miss another Market Report? Sign up for our newsletter here. •
