The Market Update explores how this week’s news, weather and other factors are shaping the global coffee trade.
Still another volatile week, as we trade 399 > 420, settling at 412 today.
Big drawdowns of available spot certified stocks in Europe have deepened and widened the inversion of Z25/H26 to 2300.
Conversations over potential tariff reductions between the USA and Brazil remain at a stalemate. Ironically, flowerings for the new crop look fantastic — so optimism remains evident, if very well hidden behind the tariff pain.
Statements on Colombia and Nicaragua have set off alarms in the coffee world, as we fear bigger taxes being imposed on these countries.
Elsewhere, good offers for new-crop East-African coffees look positive, and new arrivals from Ethiopia have been fantastic.
Early offers from Central America look very muted, as the impact of potential tariffs on other origins will determine the new-crop differentials on Honduras, etc.
Strange times as look at a High NY “C,” strong differentials, the delta of tariffs charges between origins, and some origins being made virtually unusable by tariffs.
Sounding like a broken record, but spot offering will diminish further as tariffs and the inversion impact everyone. Please hear me when I respectfully advise: Planning or securing contracts is becoming more important than ever. —N.B.
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