The Market Update explores how this week’s news, weather and other factors are shaping the global coffee trade.
It’s been a fun two weeks, with Arabica correcting heavily to the downside and dropping 70c. Week-on-week alone, we’ve seen a drop from 335 to 298.
Strange times, as we see the inversion weaken — yet offers of coffees from Brazil and Colombia have suddenly vanished.
Current Brazil through to new crop (August shipment) have jumped dramatically where offered to trade at levels with washed Centrals. Likewise, Colombia offers are thinning out, shipments are starting in May, and prices are up 10c in 10 days.
Recent rains in Honduras have reduced the longer-term crop by maybe 5%, and we anticipate a quality drop as we get deeper into this year’s shipments.
Organics generally seem difficult to buy, as do FTOs from Guatemala and Colombia. Sumatra offers are now in the stratosphere, with triple-digit diffs where offered. Certified Sumatras are scarce.
Planning continues to be key, as stocks and spot will remain very light.—N.B.
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